Oil Price Forecasts
Readings
Alquist, Ron, and Lutz Kilian, “What do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25: 539-573 (2010).
Alquist, Ron, Lutz Kilian, and Robert J. Vigfusson. “Forecasting the Price of Oil.” International Finance Discussion Papers, Number 1022. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (July 2011).
Bahattin, Büyüksahin, and Michel A. Robe. “Commodity Traders’ Positions and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from the Recent Boom-Bust Cycle,” mimeo, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Barsky, Robert B., and Lutz Kilian. “Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative.” NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, vol 16.
Barsky, Robert B., and Lutz Kilian. “Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 18, no. 4, page. 115-134 (Fall 2004).
Baumeister, Christiane, and Lutz Kilian. “Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 33, no. 3 (July 2015).
Baumeister, Christiane, and Lutz Kilian. “Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise US.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 30, no. 1, page 139-160 (Winter 2016).
Baumeister, Christiane., and Lutz Kilian. “What Central Bankers Need to Know About Forecasting Oil Prices.” International Economic Review, 55, 869–889 (2014).
Baumeister, Christiane., Lutz Kilian, and Xiaoqing Zhou. “Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting Oil Prices? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis.” Mimeo: University of Michigan (September 2014).
Belyi, Andrei V. “Why is the Oil Price not about Equilibrium?: An Economic Sociology Account of Petroleum Markets.” Energy Policy, 96: 45-49 (2016).
Benes, Jaromir, Marcelle Chauvet, Ondra Kamenik, Michael Kumhof, Douglas Laxton, Susanna Mursula, and Jack Selody. “The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology.” International Journal of Forecasting, 31:207-221 (2015).
Hamilton, James D. “Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08.” NBER Working Paper, no. 15002 (May 2009).
Knetsch, Thomas A. “Forecasting the Price of Oil via Convenience Yield Predictions,” Journal of Forecasting, 26, 527–549 (2007).
Kilian, Lutz. “Not ALL Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market.” American Economic Review, 99: 3, 1053-1069 (2009).
Kilian, Lutz. “Oil Price Shocks: Cause and Consequences.” The Annual Review of Resource Economics, 6: 133-54 (2014).
Kilian, Lutz, and Dan Murphy. “The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29, 454-478 (2014).
Liao, Hua, Jia Wei Cai, Dongwei Yang, Yiming Wei. “Why did the Historical Energy Forecasting Succeed or Fail? A Case Study on IEA’s Projection” Technoligical Forecasting & Social Change, 107:90-96 (2016).
Manescu, Cristiana, and Ine Van Robays. “Forecasting the Brent Oil Price Addressing Time-variation in Forecast Performance.” European Central Bank Working Paper Series, no 1735 (September 2014).